China growth fails to meet expectations amid choppy recovery

Written By limadu on Senin, 15 April 2013 | 12.08

HONG KONG (CNNMoney)

Gross domestic product grew by 7.7% for the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the government's target of 7.5% but well below analysts' expectations.

China has averaged growth of around 10% a year in the past three decades, propelling it up the list of biggest economies, generating wealth for its growing middle class and boosting global trade.

Inflation, a problem in 2012, has been tame so far this year. But economists are worried about a rapid expansion in credit and a red-hot housing market.

Earlier this month, Fitch warned over excessive debt levels in China and issued a rare local currency downgrade. Credit in China has expanded quickly in the wake of the global financial crisis, with much of it issued to local governments and used to finance infrastructure projects.

But local government finances in China are notoriously opaque, and financial partnerships with local businesses are particularly murky. Fitch believes local government debt levels are now so high that Beijing will, at some point, be forced to assume some of the burden.

Related story: China misses out on global stocks rally

The housing market has taken off as well. China's central government said in February that it was concerned about the property market, and directed local governments to cool prices.

China's new leadership -- which took the reins in November last year -- is looking to rebalance the economy, placing greater emphasis on consumption and reducing the country's reliance on investment in infrastructure, manufacturing and real estate.

Related story: In China, a little bit of financial chaos is just fine

A gradual recovery would create a favorable backdrop for new President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang to pursue further reforms of China's economy.

Some experts believe growth could tail off further in the second half of this year, pointing to the possibility of rising real estate prices and inflation that could prompt a tightening of monetary policy. To top of page

First Published: April 14, 2013: 10:32 PM ET


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