Investors should root for Seattle ... maybe

If you believe in the Super Bowl indicator, you may want to root for Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks over Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

According to this bit of Wall Street lore, the Dow tends to go up when a team from the original National Football League beats a team that played in the upstart American Football League, which merged to create the current NFL.

The Seahawks actually didn't come into existence until the 1970s. But they started in the National Football Conference, where most old NFL teams play. Following a 25-year stint in the opposing American Football Conference, the Seahawks returned to the NFC in 2002. That's why investors are supposed to root for Seattle.

Most of the old AFL teams, including the Broncos, now play in the AFC. So usually it's better when a current NFC team beats the AFC team.

Of course, the Super Bowl Indicator is nothing more than a correlation. There is no real cause and effect and investors should NOT use it as a guide for buying and selling stocks.

But for what it's worth, the indicator has been accurate more than 80% of time since the first Super Bowl in 1967 -- albeit with plenty of loopholes.

For example, the six-time Super Bowl champ Pittsburgh Steelers count as an "old" team even though they play in the AFC. That's because they were originally in the NFL before the merger.

Similarly, the Baltimore Ravens, which won last year's Super Bowl, are also considered an "old" team despite playing in the AFC. They were previously the old NFL's Cleveland Browns before moving to Baltimore nearly two decades ago.

Related: Fox Sports sells out Super Bowl ads

During the times when the indicator has worked, the Dow has averaged a 10% gain that year..

But the indicator is not perfect. And the last time it failed, it went horribly wrong for stocks. That was in 2008, when the NFC's New York Giants beat the New England Patriots. The Dow tumbled more than 30% due to the financial crisis and Great Recession.

A Broncos win may not be so bad: Interestingly enough, in the nine times that the Super Bowl Indicator has failed to accurately predict market direction, the Denver Broncos have been participants in four of those championship games.

In 1978 and 1990, the Denver Broncos were defeated in the Super Bowl by the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers respectively. But the Dow fell anyway in both years.

When the Broncos beat the Green Bay Packers in 1998 and repeated as champs with a victory over the Atlanta Falcons in 1999, the Dow delivered gains north of 15% during one of the best bull markets in history.

The market really loves the 49ers: Still, some might argue that the Seahawks jinxed things by making it to the Super Bowl. While the Dallas Cowboys will always be America's Team (disclosure: this writer was born and bred a Dallas Cowboys fan), Wall Street's favorite team seems to be the San Francisco 49ers.

San Francisco lost Sunday night in a testy battle against the Seahawks that led to an instant classic postgame interview with Seattle cornerback Richard Sherman.

During the five years that the Niners have won the Super Bowl, the Dow averaged an increase of more than 20%.

Then again, San Francisco lost last year and the Dow went on to hit a record high.

So feel free to have fun on Super Bowl Sunday and root for whichever team is your favorite. What the market does in 2014 depends more on how strong earnings are and how quickly new Fed chief Janet Yellen pulls back on stimulus for the economy than whether or not Peyton Manning gets his second Super Bowl ring.

First Published: January 20, 2014: 2:03 PM ET

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Did you get an email from Target? What you need to know

Target sent emails like the one shown above to millions of customers affected by the breach. Be careful about scammers trying to mimic them.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Target did indeed do a blast to customers to offer one year of free credit monitoring. The problem is scammers are also on the prowl and are sending out similar emails.

Target even says it has identified and stopped at least 12 scams preying on consumers via email, Facebook and other outlets.

The Target emails went to customers whose personal information was in the Target (TGT, Fortune 500) database. Cyber thieves penetrated the records during the holiday shopping season breach discovered last month and stole info like names, phone numbers and email addresses. The full extent of the hacking is still under investigation.

In the meantime, here's what to do if you see an email from Target pop up in your inbox.

If you've already opened the email: Target has posted a copy of the email it sent out online. So go here to make sure the email you opened, the address it came from, and the link you clicked all matches up.

If it doesn't match, and especially if you clicked a link to an external website and entered personal information, you need to take action quickly, says Credit.com Chairman Adam Levin, who specializes in privacy and identity theft.

First, get a copy of your credit report, check your bank and credit card activity on a daily basis and call the credit reporting agencies to tell them what happened. You can ask to have a fraud alert placed on your account, meaning it will be flagged to lenders if someone attempts to open credit in your name.

If you're really worried, you can request a credit freeze, which prohibits any credit from being extended under your name. But that's a big step because you will have to go through the process of undoing this whenever you need credit again.

If you entered a credit card or debit card number, reach out to those institutions to warn them of potential fraud as well.

Related: Millions getting new debit, credit cards after Target breach

If you haven't opened the email: To avoid any chance of a virus or of falling prey to a potential scam, Levin recommends going directly to Target's website to view the letter you believe has landed in your inbox -- since even opening a fraudulent email could lead malware to be installed on your computer. And if you do open the email, don't click on any links.

You can also visit creditmonitoring.target.com directly to enroll in the free credit monitoring Target is offering. Once there, you will have to enter your email address and will be sent another email within 72 hours with a unique activation code to use in order to sign up for the service. The subject will mention the activation code.

All other correspondence from Target can be found here. The retailer emphasizes that it will never email a consumer and ask for personal information like a Social Security number or credit card information.

But it's not just emails claiming to be from Target that customers need to worry about.

If your personal information was compromised in the breach, that means scammers could contact you pretending to be anyone -- like another retailer or even the IRS.

"These people are now in harm's way -- you have to look really carefully at any email you click on from now on," said Levin. "If there was ever a moment for people to think, 'It could happen to me' ... this is that moment."

First Published: January 20, 2014: 4:02 PM ET

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China's pollution crisis threatens car sales

Pollution controls could put a damper on auto sales growth in China.

HONG KONG (CNNMoney)

The Chinese government is limiting the number of new vehicle registrations in many major cities this year in hopes of clearing the country's thick, smoggy air. Sales in the largest cities could be limited to 300,000, while a limited number of smaller cities will have caps closer to 25,000. On top of that, a group of cities are even banning some cars from the streets on certain days to lighten traffic and decrease pollution.

Auto companies have in recent years expanded rapidly in China, where growing demand and rising wages have fueled a car-buying boom. China is now the world's largest car market, cementing the country's status as a top destination for automakers. But now, the government's new rules are expected to dampen China's auto-spending spree.

In the short term, auto sales could benefit as consumers race to buy cars before the new restrictions are implemented. But that sugar rush won't last -- growth in passenger vehicle sales is expected to slow from an estimated 15% in 2013 to 10% this year, according to a report by Japanese brokerage Nomura.

Related: Top 10 luxury cars in China

"Surging sales are expected to see a slowdown [in 2014] as government restrictions curbing new vehicle sales are enforced across cities in China, as the levels of pollution hit record highs in China," said Namrita Chow, an analyst at market research firm IHS.

Last year, total motor vehicle sales in China grew by 14% over the previous year to reach 22 million vehicles, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. That's nearly twice as fast as the 7.6% growth rate posted in the U.S., where 15.6 million vehicles were sold.

Related story: Ford unveils all-new F-150 in Detroit

Companies like Ford (F, Fortune 500) -- which boosted sales by 50% to almost 1 million units last year in China -- could be hardest hit by new restrictions.

The U.S. automaker's Ford Focus led the competition as the top-selling model in China, followed by the Volkswagen (VLKAF) Lavida, Toyota (TM) Corolla, Buick Excelle and the Volkswagen Sagitar, according to a ranking by IHS.

Related story: Nissan takes aim at London taxi market

Automakers could skirt a slowdown in the major cities by shifting resources to smaller Chinese cities where government restrictions have not yet been imposed.

"These smaller-tier cities are also where a large proportion of new, first-time car buyers reside, and it is these buyers which ... automakers aim to entice," Chow said.

Some companies may also pursue growth in other emerging markets, such as Indonesia or Brazil, she said.

First Published: January 20, 2014: 11:32 PM ET

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Staples' mini post offices draw union ire

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Workers are concerned the experimental locations -- staffed by Staples (SPLS, Fortune 500) employees, not Postal Service employees -- will lead to the closure of traditional post offices and the loss of jobs with good wages and benefits.

"The Staples-USPS deal has to be looked at in the context of a drive towards privatizing the U.S. Postal Service," said Mark Dimondstein, president of the American Postal Workers Union. His group is a network of local unions that represents over 220,000 current and retired mail workers.

"We are willing to support this program as long as it's staffed with United States Postal Service employees," he said.

Staples declined to comment on the unions' concerns and said it doesn't discuss agreements with vendors, but said the pilot program is intended to offer "added convenience for our customers."

"Staples continually tests new products and services to better meet the needs of our customers," said spokeswoman Carrie McElwee.

Related: Price of stamps to go up more than expected

And Postal Service spokeswoman Darleen Reid-MeMeo rejected the idea that the Staples program was "an attempt to replace stand alone Post Offices."

The post office, whose financial struggles are well-known, is adapting, Reid-MeMeo said. The Staples pilot is the next step of a program that already has over 65,000 retail partners -- including grocery stores and pharmacies that sell stamps and village stores that sell flat-rate boxes in rural areas.

Sarah Ryan, a faculty member at The Evergreen State College in Washington, said she thinks the Staples partnership does little to help traditionally underserved postal customers.

"The interesting thing is this won't do anything to help people who are in rural or lower income neighborhoods," Ryan said. She has studied privatization and the Postal Service and is a former retail clerk at a Seattle post office and held elected positions in the local postal union.

Related: Can package delivery save the Postal Service?

"This is the first time since the Sears deal that there's an effort to move the retail into a national, corporate chain," she said.

In the 1980s, the Postal Service and Sears (SHLD, Fortune 500) struck an arrangement similar to the one at Staples today. Postal unions protested and the program was eventually canceled.

This time around, Dimondstein said, the union president, said workers want guarantees their jobs will be protected and not outsourced to Staples.

"We do not have any problem with the people of this country getting expanded access to postal service," said Dimondstein. "We are willing to support this program as long as it's staffed with United States Postal Service employees."

The Postal Service counters are currently available at just over 80 Staples stores in and around San Francisco, San Diego, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Worcester, Massachusetts, said Reid-MeMeo, the USPS spokeswoman. She said the postal service is "always looking to expand access to postal products and services in locations where our customers frequent."

-- CNN's AnneClaire Stapleton contributed to this report

First Published: January 19, 2014: 9:04 PM ET

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China's 7.7% GDP growth beats official target

China's economy grew by 7.7% over the previous year in 2013.

HONG KONG (CNNMoney)

Gross domestic product grew by 7.7% in 2013 over the previous year, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics, a performance that matched the median estimate of a CNNMoney survey. Full-year expansion was supported by 7.7% growth in the final quarter of the year, beating the survey forecast of 7.6% by a whisker.

While last year's growth topped the government's official target of 7.5%, China's economy is stagnating after recording revised 7.7% GDP growth in 2012 and 9.3% in 2011. Looking ahead for 2014, GDP growth is expected to slow to 7.4%.

China's benchmark index, the Shanghai Composite, slipped 0.2% after the announcement. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dipped 0.3%.

Related story: China's growth expected to beat official target

The pace of China's GDP growth is the most comprehensive gauge of the country's economic health -- an important number to monitor as the government works to bring about stability after decades of runaway expansion. As part of efforts to find more sustainable growth, the government introduced last year a wide range of reforms that tackle everything from fiscal policy to family planning standards.

Economists think the reforms are necessary for China, but putting the plan into action won't be easy and gains may not be reflected in the economy for years.

Related story: Inside China's $2.2 trillion budget

How changes are implemented, and the order in which reforms are introduced, will determine whether or not there is any impact on the economy, said Wang Tao of UBS.

An emphasis should be placed on reforming state-owned enterprises and fiscal policy first, she said. If done successfully, Wang said the reforms could keep China's annual economic growth at 6% to 7% over the next decade.

Other experts are less optimistic. Nomura economists said some of the government's plans still remain vague, and more significant reforms are needed to reduce dependence on state-backed businesses.

Related story: China lifts IPO ban and relaxes rules

Economists surveyed by CNNMoney said that China's economy continues to face a number of threats, with credit growth and local government debt topping the list. Reining in credit could lead to an unexpected liquidity squeeze, while expansion could also spell disaster.

"With the rapid development of interbank and other 'shadow' credit activities in recent years, the task of managing liquidity and credit conditions has become increasingly difficult," said UBS's Wang.

First Published: January 19, 2014: 9:48 PM ET

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Nintendo shares tumble after loss warning

Nintendo shares dropped 20% on Monday before mounting a comeback.

HONG KONG (CNNMoney)

Nintendo (NTDOF) said Friday that it expects an operating loss of 35 billion yen ($335.2 million) for the fiscal year ending in March, following disappointing software and hardware sales in the busy end-of-year buying season.

That's a significant downturn from the profit of 100 billion yen ($957.7 million) previously forecast. The electronics maker also slashed estimated figures for global sales of its Wii U console to 2.8 million from 9 million, even after it cut the price of the device last year in a bid to draw buyers.

Nintendo shares in Tokyo pared some morning losses, but were still down by more than 10% in afternoon trading.

The Wii U has struggled to lure consumers as the appetite for mobile and tablet gaming grows, underscoring problems with the company's strategy and ability to keep up with gaming trends.

Related: Nintendo's big problem

Stiff competition from rival devices -- Microsoft's Xbox and Sony's PlayStation -- has also hurt Nintendo. Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) and Sony (SNE) have turned their gaming consoles into integrated, computing devices, and new models of the devices released late last year were in hot demand.

At the same time, Nintendo, maker of a string of best-selling games including Mario Bros. and Wii Fit, has shied away from online gaming and entertainment-based features.

Nintendo shares got a boost earlier this month when China loosened restrictions on video game consoles. The new market could be a boon for Nintendo, but it's not yet clear whether the company will embrace the experiment.

First Published: January 19, 2014: 11:03 PM ET

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Jos. A. Bank rejects new Men's Wearhouse bid

Jos. A. Bank called the Men's Wearhouse bid "inadequate and opportunistic."

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Jos. A. Bank's message to shareholders Friday? You're not going to like the way it looks.

Men's Wearhouse's $1.6 billion hostile bid offered Jos. A. Bank (JOSB) stockholders $57.50 a share, a modest premium from Friday's closing price of $56.49.

"The Offer significantly undervalues Jos. A. Bank, and its future prospects," Jos. A. Bank (JOSB) said Friday. "Men's Wearhouse's true motives are unclear and its commitment to the Offer is not credible."

The firm added that it "is continuing to consider strategic alternatives, including acquisitions, which will maximize stockholder value."

The announcement marks the latest development in the months-long takeover battle between the two menswear merchants.

Jos. A. Bank made an offer to buy Men's Wearhouse last year for $2.4 billion. Men's Wearhouse rejected that bid and countered with an unsolicited bid of $55 a share for Jos. A. Bank -- a proposal that was also rejected.

Related: Time Warner Cable rejects merger plan

"Given that the Jos. A. Bank Board has publicly acknowledged the compelling strategic logic of this transaction, we think Jos. A. Bank shareholders should question why their Board is refusing to negotiate with us to reach an agreement that will deliver to them significant value," Men's Wearhouse said Friday.

Earlier this month, Jos. A. Bank announced a shareholders' rights plan, commonly known as a poison pill defense, to block hostile bids by granting additional shares should any buyer acquire 10% of its shares.

It's been a tumultuous few months for Men's Wearhouse, which is under pressure from its largest shareholder, Eminence Capital, to secure a deal.

Last June, the retailer announced the firing of George Zimmer, its chairman, founder and long-time pitchman.

First Published: January 17, 2014: 7:01 PM ET

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